The Future of Geography in the New Space Age

Space is the final frontier, a vast and mysterious place. It is also the future of geography, a dynamic and complex place. It will shape and be shaped by the actions and decisions of humankind, both in space and on Earth.

The new space race will bring new opportunities and challenges, new benefits and risks, new cooperation and conflict, and new ethics and laws. It will also bring new questions and uncertainties, new hopes and fears, new dreams and realities.

How will we cope and adapt to the new space age? How will we use and share the new space domain? How will we live and coexist in the new space world?

These are the questions that we need to ask and answer, as we embark on the journey to the future of geography.

In this article, we will explore the following topics:

The new space race: who are the main players and what are their goals?
The new astropolitics: how will space affect the balance of power and the geopolitics of the world?
The new space economy: what are the opportunities and challenges of exploiting space resources and technologies?
The new space war: what are the potential scenarios and consequences of conflict in space?
The new space ethics: what are the moral and legal issues of space exploration and colonization?

The New Space Race: Who Are the Main Players and What Are Their Goals?

The space race is not a new phenomenon. It started in the mid-20th century when the USA and the USSR competed for supremacy in space. The first artificial satellite, the first human in space, the first lunar landing, and the first space station were all milestones of this rivalry.

However, the space race has changed in the 21st century. It is no longer a bipolar contest between two superpowers, but a multipolar competition involving many actors. Besides the USA and Russia, China, India, Japan, the European Union, and several private companies are also vying for a share of the space pie.

Each of these actors has different motivations and objectives for their space activities. Some of them are:

Scientific exploration: to advance the knowledge of the universe and its phenomena, such as the origin of life, the formation of planets, the existence of extraterrestrial life, and the nature of dark matter and dark energy.
Technological innovation: to develop and test new technologies and applications that can benefit various sectors of the economy and society, such as telecommunications, navigation, remote sensing, weather forecasting, disaster management, education, and entertainment.
Strategic advantage: to enhance the national security and the international influence of a country or a bloc, by acquiring and maintaining assets and capabilities in space that can provide information, communication, surveillance, reconnaissance, deterrence, and, if necessary, attack.
Economic opportunity: to exploit the abundant and valuable resources and services that space can offer, such as minerals, metals, water, energy, tourism, manufacturing, and asteroid mining.
Human destiny: to fulfill the innate curiosity and ambition of humankind, by expanding the frontiers of exploration and settlement beyond Earth, and by creating new habitats and civilizations in other worlds.

The table below summarizes the main achievements and plans of some of the major space actors:

Actor	Achievements	Plans
USA	– First lunar landing and rover – First Mars rover and helicopter – First asteroid sample return – Largest number of satellites and launches	– First woman and next man on the Moon by 2024 – First human mission to Mars by 2030 – First nuclear-powered spacecraft by 2025 – First commercial space station by 2027
China	– First lunar rover and sample return – First Mars rover and orbiter – First space station and crewed mission – First quantum satellite and network	– First human landing and base on the Moon by 2030 – First human mission to Mars by 2040 – First solar power station in orbit by 2035 – First reusable launch vehicle by 2025
India	– First interplanetary mission to Mars – First anti-satellite weapon – First lunar orbiter and impactor – First space observatory and telescope	– First human spaceflight by 2022 – First lunar landing and rover by 2022 – First Venus orbiter by 2023 – First solar mission by 2022
Japan	– First asteroid landing and sample return – First lunar orbiter and impactor – First reusable launch vehicle – First space elevator experiment	– First human landing and base on the Moon by 2030 – First Mars orbiter and lander by 2024 – First Jupiter orbiter and probe by 2029 – First space debris removal by 2025
European Union	– First comet landing and sample return – First global navigation system – First Earth observation program – First space weather service	– First human mission to the Moon by 2025 – First lunar gateway and outpost by 2026 – First Mars sample return by 2028 – First space traffic management by 2025

Actor

Achievements

Plans

USA

– First lunar landing and rover

– First Mars rover and helicopter

– First asteroid sample return

– Largest number of satellites and launches

– First woman and next man on the Moon by 2024

– First human mission to Mars by 2030

– First nuclear-powered spacecraft by 2025

– First commercial space station by 2027

China

– First lunar rover and sample return

– First Mars rover and orbiter

– First space station and crewed mission

– First quantum satellite and network

– First human landing and base on the Moon by 2030

– First human mission to Mars by 2040

– First solar power station in orbit by 2035

– First reusable launch vehicle by 2025

India

– First interplanetary mission to Mars

– First anti-satellite weapon

– First lunar orbiter and impactor

– First space observatory and telescope

– First human spaceflight by 2022

– First lunar landing and rover by 2022

– First Venus orbiter by 2023

– First solar mission by 2022

Japan

– First asteroid landing and sample return – First lunar orbiter and impactor

– First reusable launch vehicle

– First space elevator experiment

– First human landing and base on the Moon by 2030

– First Mars orbiter and lander by 2024

– First Jupiter orbiter and probe by 2029

– First space debris removal by 2025

European Union

– First comet landing and sample return

– First global navigation system

– First Earth observation program

– First space weather service

– First human mission to the Moon by 2025

– First lunar gateway and outpost by 2026

– First Mars sample return by 2028

– First space traffic management by 2025

The New Astropolitics: How Will Space Affect the Balance of Power and the Geopolitics of the World?

Space is not a neutral and empty domain. It is an extension and a reflection of the political and economic realities on Earth. As such, it is subject to the same dynamics and conflicts that shape the geopolitics of the world.

The new space race is not only a competition for prestige and glory, but also a struggle for power and influence. The actors who can establish and maintain a presence and an advantage in space will have a significant edge over their rivals in the terrestrial arena.

For instance, China’s ambitious space program is part of its broader strategy to challenge the USA’s hegemony and assert its leadership in Asia and beyond. China has already achieved several impressive feats in space, such as launching the first lunar rover, the first space station, and the first Mars rover. It also plans to send humans to the Moon and Mars and to build a permanent lunar base.

The USA, on the other hand, is trying to maintain and extend its dominance in space, by investing in new technologies and partnerships. The USA has recently created a new branch of its military, the Space Force, to protect its interests and assets in space. It has also revived its lunar exploration program, Artemis, to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by 2024. Moreover, it has fostered cooperation with its allies and partners, such as the European Union, Japan, India, and Australia, to form a coalition of like-minded democracies in space.

Other actors, such as Russia, India, Japan, and the European Union, are also pursuing their agendas and interests in space, sometimes in collaboration and sometimes in competition with the USA and China. For example, Russia is a key partner of the USA in the International Space Station, but it is also developing its space station and collaborating with China in lunar exploration. India is a rising space power, with achievements such as launching the first interplanetary mission to Mars and the first anti-satellite weapon. Japan is a leader in robotic exploration, with missions to asteroids and moons. The European Union is a major contributor to scientific and commercial space activities, with projects such as the Galileo navigation system and the Copernicus Earth observation program.

The new astropolitics will have profound implications for the future of the world. It will create new opportunities and challenges, new alliances and rivalries, new norms and rules, and new sources of cooperation and conflict. It will also affect the existing geopolitical issues and regions, such as the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Arctic.

The New Space Economy: What Are the Opportunities and Challenges of Exploiting Space Resources and Technologies?

Space is not only a strategic and scientific domain but also an economic one. It is estimated that the global space economy was worth about $423 billion in 2019 and that it will grow to $1.4 trillion by 2030. The main drivers of this growth are the increasing demand and supply of space services and products, such as satellite communications, navigation, remote sensing, broadcasting, entertainment, education, and research.

However, the space economy is not limited to the Earth’s orbit. It also extends to the Moon, Mars, and beyond, where there are abundant and valuable resources and opportunities that can be exploited for profit and benefit. Some of these are:

Minerals and metals: The Moon and the asteroids contain vast amounts of minerals and metals that are rare or depleted on Earth, such as helium-3, platinum, gold, iron, nickel, and cobalt. These resources can be used for various purposes, such as energy production, industrial manufacturing, scientific research, and trade.
Water and ice: The Moon and Mars have significant deposits of water and ice, which can be used for various purposes, such as life support, agriculture, fuel production, scientific research, and trade.
Energy: The Sun provides a constant and abundant source of energy in space, which can be harvested and transmitted to Earth or other locations, using solar panels, lasers, or microwaves. This energy can be used for various purposes, such as power generation, climate change mitigation, industrial manufacturing, scientific research, and trade.

Tourism: Space offers unique and attractive destinations and experiences for tourists, such as the Moon, Mars, the International Space Station, suborbital flights, orbital hotels, lunar resorts, and asteroid mining. These activities can provide various benefits, such as entertainment, education, inspiration, and prestige.
Manufacturing: Space offers unique and advantageous conditions for manufacturing, such as microgravity, vacuum, low temperature, and high radiation. These conditions can enable the production of new and improved materials, products, and processes, such as pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and 3D printing.

The new space economy will create new markets and industries, new jobs and incomes, innovations and discoveries, and new benefits and values. However, it will also pose new challenges and risks, such as:

Cost and risk: Space activities are expensive and risky, requiring high levels of investment, technology, expertise, and safety. The cost and risk of space activities can limit the access and participation of many actors, especially developing countries and small businesses. They can also create barriers and inequalities in the distribution and utilization of space resources and benefits.
Regulation and governance: Space activities are subject to a complex and evolving legal and regulatory framework, involving various national and international laws, treaties, norms, and institutions. The regulation and governance of space activities can affect the rights and responsibilities of different actors, such as states, companies, organizations, and individuals. They can also create conflicts and disputes over the ownership and use of space resources and assets.
Competition and cooperation: Space activities are driven by both competitive and cooperative motives, involving various interests and values, such as security, economy, science, culture, and ideology. The competition and cooperation of space activities can affect the relations and interactions of different actors, both in space and on Earth. They can also create opportunities and challenges for the management and resolution of conflicts and crises.

The New Space War: What Are the Potential Scenarios and Consequences of Conflict in Space?

Space is not only a peaceful and cooperative domain but also a hostile and competitive one. It is already a contested and congested environment, where various actors operate and interact, sometimes in harmony and sometimes in friction. It is also a vulnerable and fragile environment, where various threats and hazards exist, such as debris, collisions, interference, jamming, hacking, spoofing, and weapons.

The new space race has increased the potential and the likelihood of conflict in space, as more actors seek to secure and advance their interests and influence in the new frontier. The conflict in space can take various forms and levels, such as:

Espionage and sabotage: The use of covert and clandestine methods to obtain or disrupt information, communication, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities and operations in space, such as hacking, spoofing, eavesdropping, and tampering.
Interference and jamming: The use of electronic and cyber methods to disrupt or degrade the performance and functionality of satellites, ground stations, networks, and systems in space, such as interference, jamming, denial-of-service, and malware.
Destruction and damage: The use of kinetic and non-kinetic methods to destroy or damage the physical structure and integrity of satellites, debris, rockets, and other objects in space, such as anti-satellite weapons, lasers, microwaves, and missiles.
Invasion and occupation: The use of military and civilian methods to invade and occupy the territory and resources of celestial bodies, such as the Moon, Mars, and asteroids, such as landing, mining, colonization, and fortification.

The conflict in space can have various causes and triggers, such as:

Accidents and incidents: The occurrence of unintended and unexpected events and situations that can create tension and escalation in space, such as collisions, malfunctions, errors, and misunderstandings.
Provocations and demonstrations: The conduct of deliberate and calculated actions and maneuvers that can create pressure and intimidation in space, such as tests, launches, flybys, and inspections.
Crises and disputes: The emergence of serious and urgent issues and conflicts that can create confrontation and hostility in space, such as territorial claims, resource competition, ideological differences, and strategic rivalry.

The conflict in space can have various consequences and impacts, such as:

Casualties and losses: The infliction of human and material harm and damage in space and on Earth, such as deaths, injuries, destruction, disruption, and degradation.
Escalation and de-escalation: The increase or decrease of the intensity and scope of the conflict in space and on Earth, such as expansion, containment, retaliation, and deterrence.
Cooperation and resolution: The establishment or restoration of peace and stability in space and on Earth, such as negotiation, mediation, arbitration, and agreement.

The new space war will pose new threats and challenges to the security and survival of humankind. It will also create new dilemmas and choices for the prevention and management of conflict in space. It will require new strategies and policies, new capabilities and technologies, new norms and rules, and new institutions and mechanisms.

The New Space Ethics: What Are the Moral and Legal Issues of Space Exploration and Colonization?

Space is not only a physical and technical domain but also a moral and legal one. It is subject to the values and principles that guide the actions and decisions of humankind. It is also subject to the laws and regulations that govern the rights and obligations of humankind.

The new space race has raised new ethical and legal issues and questions, as more actors engage in more activities and interactions in space. Some of these are:

Environmental protection: How can we protect and preserve the natural environment and the ecological balance of space and celestial bodies, such as the Moon, Mars, and asteroids, from the harmful effects of human exploration and exploitation, such as pollution, contamination, depletion, and degradation?
Resource allocation: How can we ensure and enforce the fair and equitable distribution and utilization of the resources and benefits of space and celestial bodies, such as minerals, metals, water, energy, and tourism, among the various actors and stakeholders, such as states, companies, organizations, and individuals?
Human rights: How can we respect and safeguard the dignity and the welfare of the human beings who live and work in space and on celestial bodies, such as astronauts, cosmonauts, taikonauts, tourists, miners, and colonists, from the potential violations and abuses of their rights and freedoms, such as privacy, health, safety, security, and justice?
Cultural heritage: How can we preserve and promote the cultural and historical significance and value of space and celestial bodies, such as the Moon, Mars, and asteroids, from the possible damage and destruction of their features and artifacts, such as craters, mountains, valleys, and flags?
Extraterrestrial life: How can we search and discover the existence and the nature of life beyond Earth, such as microbes, plants, animals, and intelligent beings, responsibly and respectfully, without harming or endangering them or ourselves?
Human identity: How can we maintain and enhance the identity and the diversity of humankind, as we explore and settle in space and on celestial bodies, such as the Moon, Mars, and asteroids, without losing or compromising our values and principles, our cultures and traditions, our languages and religions, and our genes and traits?

The new space ethics will require new answers and solutions for the moral and legal challenges and dilemmas of space exploration and colonization. It will also require new awareness and education, new dialogue and debate, new codes and standards, and new institutions and mechanisms.

Conclusion

How will we cope and adapt to the new space age? How will we use and share the new space domain? How will we live and coexist in the new space world?

These are the questions that we need to ask and answer, as we embark on the journey to the future of geography.

Check out more articles!